Saturday, October 6, 2007

A-Damn betting tutorial

I know the season's weeks old, but I'm starting my weekly picks against the spread and will keep tabs of my season record picking 10 games a week. Tomorrow, I will post 10 NFL picks.

1. Wisconsin +2 at Illinois: I like how Ron Zook has reinvented his image by turning Illinois into a legitimate program again, but I don't see Wisconsin losing this game. Give me the Badgers straight up.

2. Kansas at Kansas St -3.5: K-State looked like USC in last week's win over Texas in Austin. The Wildcats scored three nonoffensive touchdowns, but they won't need that kind of performance to beat the Jayhawks in Manhattan. Plus, Mark Mangino is fat.

3. Georgia Tech at Maryland +3.5: I think the Yellow Jackets win the game, but it'll be close. Give me the Terps with the points.

4. TCU at Wyoming -3: The Horned Frogs will be without headcase defensive end Tommy Blake for the third time this season due to an "undisclosed medical condition." Can anyone say "bi-polar"?? Just a hunch. Anyway, I think the Cowboys wins this by at least 10 points. TCU just hasn't impressed me yet and I see no reason why it will on the road.

5. Oklahoma -12 vs. Texas: The Red River Shootout (yes, I still call it that -- screw political correctness) doesn't carry quite as much weight this year as in years past after both teams suffered shocking defeats last week (OU to Colorado and UT to K-State). Texas has been struggling all season barely beating teams like Central Florida and looked awful in last week's home loss. OU might have lost at Boulder last week on a last-second field goal, but I still believe the Sooners are the best team in the Big 12 South and will roll Texas by at least 20 points.

6. Arizona St. -9 at Washington St.: The Pac-10 has the most upsets on a regular basis of any major conference, I think. This will not be one of them although the Cougars are good for an upset once a year it seems. The Sun Devils are just too good this year.

7. Iowa St at Texas Tech -24.5: I've learned to never bet on Texas Tech because a) it just makes me sick and b) you never know what you'll get. However, I simply don't see Iowa State hanging with my Red Raiders in any form or fashion tomorrow. If this game was in Ames, I might think differently but Tech will be still stinging from it's last-minute loss to Oklahoma State two weeks ago, and for some reason I don't think last week's 75-7 whippin' of a I-AA directional school will help relieve that frustration. Look out Cyclones.

8. Oklahoma St. +6.5 at Texas A&M: The Aggies are about the same as TCU in my book. They haven't impressed me yet and won't this week. I'm going to just play it safe and go with OSU and the points, but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see the Cowboys leave Kyle Field with a win. Head coach Mike Gundy's impassioned "I'm a man, I'm 40!" rant two weeks ago after his team's win over Texas Tech did one of two things -- rally the troops or deflate the team morale. I'm going with the former. On the other hand, A&M's head honcho, Dennis "Can't be trusted" Franchione made headlines this week by selling top-secret info on the program to boosters for big-time bucks leaving some A&M brass to call for his firing, and that's not even taking into account his disappointing stint at A&M thus far through five seasons.

9. Ohio State at Purdue +7.5: Can Purdue break through to the upper echelon of the Big 10 this week? Well, the Boilers can with a win. I don't really see a win happening, but they'll make it close. Toot Toot!

And finally...

10. Florida at LSU -7: Florida will have redemption on its mind after last week's stunning loss to Auburn at home. Unfortunately for Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow, the Gators are going to the bayou this week to face the No. 1 team in the land. Glenn Dorsey & Co. will make life very difficult for Tebow and his jump passes and the Tigers will win by two touchdowns in front of the most raucous home crowd in college football. By raucous, I just mean downright scary.

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